In order to successfully bluff in poker, you need to figure out what bluffs will work on what types of players. A good poker player knows the difference, but a bad poker player doesn’t care. Good players know that people can be bluffed while cards can’t. That’s why a show-down is a bluffer’s worst enemy. Players who are the targets of bluffs have traditionally been referred to as “pigeons” in poker. That may be because pigeons are unsuspecting players who make mistakes and invite being trapped. However, every player (even experienced ones) can become a pigeon at any given time.

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The Four Modes of Bluffing

Poker players come to the tables with different playing styles. To simplify; some are aggressive, some passive, while others are tight or loose. By combining these traits, you will find four basic types of bluffs; dare bluffs, attack bluffs, sneak bluffs, and dream bluffs.

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The commonest chance to make money hanging out can happen for individuals who’ve an ordinary bluffer in your Zynga poker game. Many individuals overlook the chance to profit out of this players need to bluff since they start to play their standard normal poker strategy.

Dare Bluffs

A player will often bet rather than slow-play the best hand as a “reverse-bluff”. When a player is tight, expect them to ordinarily be aggressive when they do play. They are prone to be daring you as if to say, “Call that, if you don’t like money!” Their reverse bluffs are usually planned and their motto is, “Ready, aim, and then fire”. Such players are daring you to call them because they are certain that they have you beat. It’s a reverse bluff because they think they have the best hand, and are hoping you think they’re bluffing.

These players are also highly planned in their actions and they are aggressive when they play. That’s because they only play with potentially winning hands and will make you pay if you are chasing with a mediocre hand. Their dares, however, are not always obvious. Their dares are very often semi-bluffs – what they have is already good and there’s a chance of their improving if you call them.

Attack Bluffs

There are a whole set of players who are not so well planned in their bluffs. They are much looser players who bluff and keep the action going. These attack bluffers play impulsively and are usually thinking, “Ready, fire, and then aim”. An example of this is a “no fold ’em hold ’em” player who splashes the pot with a raise. If you are reading your players, you may already have pegged him as a loose player that likes to draw attention to his actions. You’ll often see such bluffing occur aggressively, with flare, and the bettor hasn’t even looked to see what he or she is betting into.

These players take risks more liberally, and will routinely bluff into over-cards. They can be a threat to the most seasoned of poker players – particularly if the loose player is catching their hands. Such attack bluffers will give you action and stay in longer than they should. However, these bluffers deserve a word of caution. They can modify their impulsive bluffs and may become more structured when needed.

Sneak Bluffs

Their system of bluffing is to slow-play and let their prey do the betting and find them. They believe that the way to trap a player is to lure them by feigning weakness and then surprising their opponents. While slow-playing is a choice that most players will use at times, it’s a way of life for these sneaky bluffers.

Often, in hold’em, you may be playing with fair cards and a player behind you just limps in. Or, perhaps, hesitates before he calls and seems to be doing it reluctantly. You may then relax and think, “OK, At least I’ve got him beat!” That’s exactly what this sneak bluffer wants you to think. This is actually when you should start to worry. This quiet player who likes to just call and hide behind the proverbial bush, probably already has you in his or her sights. It’s one of the hard bluffs to avoid since the player is seldom aggressive and plays a pretty tight game.

The problem this player has is that he or she is so structured that when they do bet, most people with marginal hands will fold like trained pigs. I asked a friend who is like this how
she handles her tight reputation. I wasn’t surprised to hear her say, “I take advantage of it. Sometimes when I’ve got lousy cards and I am is a good position, I’ll bet or check/raise with a stone-cold bluff!” I wondered if she was setting me up to call her next time that she had a great hand – because the truth is that these players rarely attempt stone-cold bluffs.

Dream Bluffs

These are players who play mostly as they fly – by the seat of their pants. They will cast nets and see what they can catch. Their bluffs are more from hunches about the value of their drawing hands or what they think their hand will become. So, their bluffs are more “on the come”. They will do little to influence play and pretty much let the cards play themselves. They are bluffing as if they are strong because they actually believe that they are going to win the hand. They are dreaming of the hand they are going to get. It can’t even be called semi-bluffing, because they are bluffing on their dreams and don’t even have something like a pair or a gut-shot-straight to build upon.

I was playing with a very friendly player who seemed to play a lot of hands. He was without doubt a calling station. People were filling up on his frequent calls. I began to wonder about how he was thinking as he played. So, I asked him when he showed his hand of Ace high, “that’s wasn’t even a semi-bluff. What were you thinking?”“Well, I would have had him beat if I got another Ace!” So he was playing on a dream and chasing to the end.

In order to advance your bluffing skills, it’s time to know how different personality types will dare you, attack you, sneak around you, or be bluffing from their dreams. Experienced players will use all four modes and fit them to the personalities of their opponents. Just remember that hard line aggressive players will either bluff with a dare or attack with their bluffs. Tight/Passive players will either sneak their bluffs from behind the proverbial “bush”, or bluff on their dreams with hands they are hoping to get.

A potential pigeon is either tight or loose, or sometimes a hybrid of the two. When you have the right trap and you systematically use it, you can catch a lot of different kinds of pigeons. Some poker players are better at trapping and others are prime targets to be trapped.

Bluffing Tight Players

Tight players have a lot of structure in their play. To bluff such players will require traps or bluffs that take into account that they are not impulsive. Think of how fishermen use different lures. Some will fold if raised, while others will need convincing that your hand is better and you are coming over them not merely from your later position. At times, thinking can hurt your game. To bluff this kind of player requires getting them to think themselves into folding – which they’ll do frequently enough, which at times make bluffing an almost must.

There’s no doubt that bluffing works best on conservative players. For example, a tight player might check with top pair and bet on the turn after everyone checks behind him. When a player behind him raises that bet and another one re-raises, what would a tight player think? If all he has is top pair, a tight player might fold figuring one of the raisers has him beat. So, what’s the bluff? A showdown might reveal that the first raiser had a small pairs while the re-raiser only had middle pair. This player was convinced they were behind, which is why these players are ideal for being bluffed, particularly if their playing with scared money.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be cautious of tight players. Remember that many are passive in their approach, and when they themselves bluff, it usually has a sneaky aspect. As we’ve already said, sneak bluffs are planned by players whose system is to lay low and wait for someone to do their betting. Like the proverbial spider that spins its webs, these bluffers will use feigning weakness as their lures. They often do the opposite of what the “correct” play is, so make decisions accordingly. If you’re in a situation where you’re being called by a sneaky/tricky type, then slow down and be careful. Don’t fall for their bait, and their weakness may come in the form of checking, with the hope of laying the trap, leaving you with a free card to improve.

Bluffing Loose Players

While some loose players require bluffs that are passive (such as slow playing), others are more vulnerable to active ploys. It’s sometimes hard to tell the cops from the robbers in a poker game. That’s proof that there’s a lot of truth in the saying that, “It takes a thief to catch a thief“. A lot of cops know where to hide their radar-speed traps because they are speeders themselves. When players are moving fast and seem more impulsive, they will require bluffs or speed traps designed to catch them in the act.

When you think a player is just playing “power poker”, a quick re-raise with a strong hand will pay off with such aggressive and impulsive players. That’s because their non-thinking response is to call rather than fold, simply because they often get caught up in the emotions of the hand. They certainly don’t like to appear as if they’re being pushed around, so take advantage of this. But be sure that the player who appears to be loose really is. That could be his or her bluff.

Using Bluffs to Bluff

Some people will tell you that “You can’t bluff a bluffer” – and there is a lot of truth in this. However, a method designed to bluff poker players who may be bluffing is to bluff their bluffs (a meta-bluff). Such moves are used mostly by veteran poker players who know their opponents. Most experienced players realize that other veteran players are tuned into bluffs. So, they will use a bluff to bluff their opponent’s bluffs. They will come over them with another bluff, hoping that their opponents think that their bluff represents a real and better hand.

The fact is, though, that bluffers who play a solid game are much easier to bluff than bluffers who play too loose or don’t have a clue as to what you might have. The meta bluff is also a way to trap the trappers – but it’s best to reserve this kind of bluffing to when you’re convinced that your opponent’s actions are indeed a bluff. It would be a mistake to use meta-bluffs against less experienced players – straight bluffs would be enough.

Bluffing Insurance

The best insurance against being bluffed is developing the ability to read your opponent’s hands. If they are representing strength and you already have read them as weak, trust your reads. For example, I was playing with a young man who liked to chat on the side about what he thought people had. I noticed that he was pretty good and hit the mark on a number of occasions. This ability to “read” what others had was some insurance against his being bluffed. If he already had the person on a certain hand that wasn’t as good as his, he’d call. If, however, he put the other hand as better than his, he’d fold. The other advantage was the other players knew he was good at getting reads, so they were less likely to attempt to bluff him in the first place.

The key to mastering the bluff is to know your opponents. Without knowing the differences in players, your bluffs won’t be as effective and you’ll also fall victim to a bluffer. Remember that good poker players not only mix-up their play, they fit their bluffs to current conditions at the table and the personality of their opponents. Once you know your opponents you’ll know what bluffs they’re likely to use on you, and the different traps you can use against them – some designed to catch loose speeders or just casting nets to see what’s available.

By James A. McKenna, Ph.D.

Jim McKenna has been practicing psychotherapy for more than 40 years. He focuses his knowledge about people on poker players and is the author of two poker books on the subject.

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Best Poker Bluffer

In the card game of poker, a bluff is a bet or raise made with a hand which is not thought to be the best hand. To bluff is to make such a bet. The objective of a bluff is to induce a fold by at least one opponent who holds a better hand. The size and frequency of a bluff determines its profitability to the bluffer. By extension, the phrase 'calling somebody's bluff' is often used outside the context of poker to describe situations where one person demands that another proves a claim, or proves that they are not being deceptive.^[1]

Pure bluff[edit]

A pure bluff, or stone-cold bluff, is a bet or raise with an inferior hand that has little or no chance of improving. A player making a pure bluff believes they can win the pot only if all opponents fold. The pot odds for a bluff are the ratio of the size of the bluff to the pot. A pure bluff has a positive expectation (will be profitable in the long run) when the probability of being called by an opponent is lower than the pot odds for the bluff.

For example, suppose that after all the cards are out, a player holding a busteddrawing hand decides that the only way to win the pot is to make a pure bluff. If the player bets the size of the pot on a pure bluff, the bluff will have a positive expectation if the probability of being called is less than 50%. Note, however, that the opponent may also consider the pot odds when deciding whether to call. In this example, the opponent will be facing 2-to-1 pot odds for the call. The opponent will have a positive expectation for calling the bluff if the opponent believes the probability the player is bluffing is at least 33%.

Semi-bluff[edit]

In games with multiple betting rounds, to bluff on one round with an inferior or drawing hand that might improve in a later round is called a semi-bluff. A player making a semi-bluff can win the pot two different ways: by all opponents folding immediately or by catching a card to improve the player's hand. In some cases a player may be on a draw but with odds strong enough that they are favored to win the hand. In this case their bet is not classified as a semi-bluff even though their bet may force opponents to fold hands with better current strength.

For example, a player in a stud poker game with four spade-suited cards showing (but none among their downcards) on the penultimate round might raise, hoping that their opponents believe the player already has a flush. If their bluff fails and they are called, the player still might be dealt a spade on the final card and win the showdown (or they might be dealt another non-spade and try to bluff again, in which case it is a pure bluff on the final round rather than a semi-bluff).

Bluffing circumstances[edit]

Bluffing may be more effective in some circumstances than others. Bluffs have a higher expectation when the probability of being called decreases. Several game circumstances may decrease the probability of being called (and increase the profitability of the bluff):

• Fewer opponents who must fold to the bluff.
• The bluff provides less favorable pot odds to opponents for a call.
• A scare card comes that increases the number of superior hands that the player may be perceived to have.
• The player's betting pattern in the hand has been consistent with the superior hand they are representing with the bluff.
• The opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a marginal hand that is vulnerable to a greater number of potential superior hands.
• The opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a drawing hand and the bluff provides unfavorable pot odds to the opponent for chasing the draw.
• Opponents are not irrationally committed to the pot (see sunk cost fallacy).
• Opponents are sufficiently skilled and paying sufficient attention.

The opponent's current state of mind should be taken into consideration when bluffing. Under certain circumstances external pressures or events can significantly impact an opponent's decision making skills.

Optimal bluffing frequency[edit]

If a player bluffs too infrequently, observant opponents will recognize that the player is betting for value and will call with very strong hands or with drawing hands only when they are receiving favorable pot odds. If a player bluffs too frequently, observant opponents snap off their bluffs by calling or re-raising. Occasional bluffing disguises not just the hands a player is bluffing with, but also their legitimate hands that opponents may think they may be bluffing with. David Sklansky, in his book The Theory of Poker, states 'Mathematically, the optimal bluffing strategy is to bluff in such a way that the chances against your bluffing are identical to the pot odds your opponent is getting.'

Optimal bluffing also requires that the bluffs must be performed in such a manner that opponents cannot tell when a player is bluffing or not. To prevent bluffs from occurring in a predictable pattern, game theory suggests the use of a randomizing agent to determine whether to bluff. For example, a player might use the colors of their hidden cards, the second hand on their watch, or some other unpredictable mechanism to determine whether to bluff.

Example (Texas Hold'em)[edit]

Here is an example for the game of Texas Hold'em, from The Theory of Poker:

when I bet my $100, creating a $300 pot, my opponent was getting 3-to-1 oddsfrom the pot. Therefore my optimum strategy was ... [to make] the odds againstmy bluffing 3-to-1.

Since the dealer will always bet with (nut hands) in this situation, they should bluff with (their) 'Weakest hands/bluffing range' 1/3 of the time in order to make the odds 3-to-1 against a bluff.^[2]

Ex:On the last betting round (river), Worm has been betting a 'semi-bluff' drawing hand with: A♠ K♠ on the board:

10♠ 9♣ 2♠ 4♣against Mike's A♣ 10♦ hand.

The river comes out:

2♣

The pot is currently 30 dollars, and Worm is contemplating a 30-dollar bluff on the river. If Worm does bluff in this situation, they are giving Mike 2-to-1 pot odds to call with their two pair (10's and 2's).

In these hypothetical circumstances, Worm will have the nuts 50% of the time, and be on a busted draw 50% of the time. Worm will bet the nuts 100% of the time, and bet with a bluffing hand (using mixed optimal strategies):

${\displaystyle x=s/(1+s)}$^[3]

Where s is equal to the percentage of the pot that Worm is bluff betting with and x is equal to the percentage of busted draws Worm should be bluffing with to bluff optimally.

Pot = 30 dollars.Bluff bet = 30 dollars.

s = 30(pot) / 30(bluff bet) = 1.

Worm should be bluffing with their busted draws:

${\displaystyle x=1/(1+s)=50\mathrm{\%}}$ Where s = 1

Assuming four trials, Worm has the nuts two times, and has a busted draw two times. (EV = expected value)

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Under the circumstances of this example: Worm will bet their nut hand two times, for every one time they bluff against Mike's hand (assuming Mike's hand would lose to the nuts and beat a bluff). This means that (if Mike called all three bets) Mike would win one time, and lose two times, and would break even against 2-to-1 pot odds. This also means that Worm's odds against bluffing is also 2-to-1 (since they will value bet twice, and bluff once).

Say in this example, Worm decides to use the second hand of their watch to determine when to bluff (50% of the time). If the second hand of the watch is between 1 and 30 seconds, Worm will check their hand down (not bluff). If the second hand of the watch is between 31 and 60 seconds, Worm will bluff their hand. Worm looks down at their watch, and the second hand is at 45 seconds, so Worm decides to bluff. Mike folds his two pair saying, 'the way you've been betting your hand, I don't think my two pair on the board will hold up against your hand.' Worm takes the pot by using optimal bluffing frequencies.

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This example is meant to illustrate how optimal bluffing frequencies work. Because it was an example, we assumed that Worm had the nuts 50% of the time, and a busted draw 50% of the time. In real game situations, this is not usually the case.

The purpose of optimal bluffing frequencies is to make the opponent (mathematically) indifferent between calling and folding. Optimal bluffing frequencies are based upon game theory and the Nash equilibrium, and assist the player using these strategies to become unexploitable. By bluffing in optimal frequencies, you will typically end up breaking even on your bluffs (in other words, optimal bluffing frequencies are not meant to generate positive expected value from the bluffs alone). Rather, optimal bluffing frequencies allow you to gain more value from your value bets, because your opponent is indifferent between calling or folding when you bet (regardless of whether it's a value bet or a bluff bet).^[3]

Bluffing in other games[edit]

Although bluffing is most often considered a poker term, similar tactics are useful in other games as well. In these situations, a player makes a play that should not be profitable unless an opponent misjudges it as being made from a position capable of justifying it. Since a successful bluff requires deceiving one's opponent, it occurs only in games in which the players conceal information from each other. In games like chess and backgammon, both players can see the same board and so should simply make the best legal move available. Examples include:

• Contract Bridge: Psychic bids and falsecards are attempts to mislead the opponents about the distribution of the cards. A risk (common to all bluffing in partnership games) is that a bluff may also confuse the bluffer's partner. Psychic bids serve to make it harder for the opponents to find a good contract or to accurately place the key missing cards with a defender. Falsecarding (a tactic available in most trick taking card games) is playing a card that would naturally be played from a different hand distribution in hopes that an opponent will wrongly assume that the falsecarder made a natural play from a different hand and misplay a later trick on that assumption.
• Stratego: Much of the strategy in Stratego revolves around identifying the ranks of the opposing pieces. Therefore depriving your opponent of this information is valuable. In particular, the 'Shoreline Bluff' involves placing the flag in an unnecessarily-vulnerable location in the hope that the opponent will not look for it there. It is also common to bluff an attack that one would never actually make by initiating pursuit of a piece known to be strong, with an as-yet unidentified but weaker piece. Until the true rank of the pursuing piece is revealed, the player with the stronger piece might retreat if their opponent does not pursue them with a weaker piece. That might buy time for the bluffer to bring in a faraway piece that can actually defend against the bluffed piece.
• Spades: In late game situations, it is useful to bid a nil even if it cannot succeed.^[4] If the third seat bidder sees that making a natural bid would allow the fourth seat bidder to make an uncontestable bid for game, they may bid nil even if it has no chance of success. The last bidder then must choose whether to make their natural bid (and lose the game if the nil succeeds) or to respect the nil by making a riskier bid that allows their side to win even if the doomed nil is successful. If the player chooses wrong and both teams miss their bids, the game continues.
• Scrabble: Scrabble players will sometimes deliberately play a phony word in the hope the opponent does not challenge it. Bluffing in Scrabble is a bit different from the other examples. Scrabble players conceal their tiles but have little opportunity to make significant deductions about their opponent's tiles (except in the endgame) and even less opportunity to spread disinformation about them. Bluffing by playing a phony is instead based on assuming players have imperfect knowledge of the acceptable word list.^{[citation needed]}

Artificial intelligence[edit]

Evan Hurwitz and Tshilidzi Marwala developed a software agent that bluffed while playing a poker-like game.^[5][6] They used intelligent agents to design agent outlooks. The agent was able to learn to predict its opponents' reactions based on its own cards and the actions of others. By using reinforcement neural networks, the agents were able to learn to bluff without prompting.

Economic theory[edit]

In economics, bluffing has been explained as rational equilibrium behavior in games with information asymmetries. For instance, consider the hold-up problem, a central ingredient of the theory of incomplete contracts. There are two players. Today player A can make an investment; tomorrow player B offers how to divide the returns of the investment. If player A rejects the offer, they can realize only a fraction x<1 of these returns on their own. Suppose player A has private information about x. Goldlücke and Schmitz (2014) have shown that player A might make a large investment even if player A is weak (i.e., when they know that x is small). The reason is that a large investment may lead player B to believe that player A is strong (i.e., x is large), so that player B will make a generous offer. Hence, bluffing can be a profitable strategy for player A.^[7]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

1. ^'call bluff'. The Free Dictionary by Farlex. Retrieved October 22, 2020.
2. ^Game Theory and Poker
3. ^ ^abThe Mathematics of Poker, Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman
4. ^[1]Archived December 28, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
5. ^Marwala, Tshilidzi; Hurwitz, Evan (May 7, 2007). 'Learning to bluff'. arXiv:0705.0693 [cs.AI].
6. ^'Software learns when it pays to deceive'. New Scientist. May 30, 2007.
7. ^Goldlücke, Susanne; Schmitz, Patrick W. (2014). 'Investments as signals of outside options'. Journal of Economic Theory. 150: 683–708. doi:10.1016/j.jet.2013.12.001. ISSN0022-0531.

General references[edit]

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• David Sklansky (1987). The Theory of Poker. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-00-0.
• David Sklansky (2001). Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-28-0.
• David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth (1988). Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-22-1.
• Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie (2004). Harrington on Hold'em: Expert Strategy For No-Limit Tournaments; Volume I: Strategic Play. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-33-7.
• Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie (2005). Harrington on Hold'em: Expert Strategy For No-Limit Tournaments; Volume II: The Endgame. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-35-3.
• Bill Chen, Jerrod Ankenman. The Mathematics of Poker.

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